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Earthquakes occur in predictable ways, so they can be easily predicted with enough time and technology. For example, we can predict where a quake will hit based on current geological conditions. The first thing to do is to figure out what the rock is made of and then look at the seismic signature of that rock. This then informs us where the fault lines are. These fault lines are the boundaries that allow the plates that make up the earth to move relative to each other, causing temblors. Once we know where the faults are, we can predict where a quake will strike. In the past, maps of predicted quakes have been used to help plan emergency responses, such as construction of evacuation shelters. Recently, the United States Geological Survey has created a new set of maps that predict the potential effects of quakes. These maps are known as intensity-frequency curves. They help scientists estimate how strong a quake will be in a given area and how often a given quake will occur in a given area.
The BGS's volcanic map, which predicted that there could be an eruption and the possible paths of the plume, was published in 2000. The map predicts the likelihood of a volcano erupting based on geomorphological and geophysical data. Volcanoes that have erupted within the last 20 years are marked on the map, too. It has identified several hundred volcanoes within Britain that could erupt in the future. The possibilities range from small to very large.
Although the USGS has developed these new maps, the British Geological Survey (BGS) has been helping people prepare for possible quakes for several decades, now. The BGS has been publishing maps of where earthquakes and volcano eruptions may occur in Britain for about 30 years now. It's created four maps in all: one for earthquakes, one for volcano eruptions, one for volcanic ash plumes and one for flooding.
This map is useful for a number of reasons. It allows those who live near volcanoes to know which eruptions are likely to be small and which are likely to be large. It allows the people living near the volcanoes to know the conditions required for an eruption and to know the possible paths that the volcanic ash plume will take.
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