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Sargent begins with an explanation of how American policymakers increased inflation in the early 1960s by following erroneous assumptions about the exploitability of the Phillips curve--the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. In subsequent chapters, he connects a sequence of ideas--self-confirming equilibria, least-squares and other adaptive or recursive learning algorithms, convergence of least-squares learners with self-confirming equilibria, and recurrent dynamics along escape routes from self-confirming equilibria. Sargent synthesizes results from macroeconomics, game theory, control theory, and other fields to extend both adaptive expectations and rational expectations theory, and he compellingly describes postwar inflation in terms of drifting coefficients. He interprets his results in favor of adaptive expectations as the relevant mechanism affecting inflation policy.
Thomas J. Sargent is Donald Lucas Professor of Economics, Stanford University, and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford. He is the author of many articles and books on macroeconomic theory, most recentlyBounded Rationality in Macroeconomics.
A path-breaking contribution. It shows new ways to analyze dynamic economics. It is a basic reference to understand--and develop--dynamic macroeconomic theory in the 21st century.---Ramon Marimon, Journal of Economic LiteratureA lucid, penetrating inquiry into the 'ifs and buts' of rational expectations and their implications for policy. . . . This book illustrates Sargent's great curiosity and honesty . . . A beautifully crafted, deep, and . . . very accessible work. . . . It deserves to be one of the century's most influential books on macroeconomics.---Peter Sinclair, Times Literary SupplementThis book illustrates Sargent's great curiosity and honesty. . . . [Here] the reader gets a lucid, penetrating inquiry into the \"ifs and buts\" of rational expectations (RE) and their implications for policy.---Peter Sinclair, The Times Higher Education SupplementThomas J. Sargent, Winner of the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics
References listed on IDEAS asHTMLHTML with abstractplain textplain text with abstractBibTeXRIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite)ReDIFJSON Sargent, Thomas J, 1976.\"A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States,\"Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-237, April. Barro, Robert J, 1977.\"Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States,\"American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March. Robert J. Barro, 1976. \"Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States,\"Working Paper 234, Economics Department, Queen's University. Henry C. Simons, 1936.\"Rules versus Authorities in Monetary Policy,\"Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44, pages 1-1. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976.\"The Phillips curve,\"Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January. 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Sargent, Thomas J, 1978.\"Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations,\"Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-1044, December. Thomas J. Sargent, 1978. \"Estimation of dynamic labor demand schedules under rational expectations,\"Staff Report 27, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1973.\"Do Walras' identity and continuity characterize the class of community excess demand functions,\"Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 345-354, August. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976.\"Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates,\"Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January. Crawford, Robert G, 1973.\"Implications of Learning for Economic Models of Uncertainty,\"International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(3), pages 587-600, October. T. Muench & A. Rolnick & N. Wallace, 1974.\"Tests for Structural Change and Prediction Intervals for the reduced Forms of Two Structural Models of the U.S.: The FRB-MIT and Michigan Quarterly Models,\"NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 3, pages 491-519,National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972.\"Expectations and the neutrality of money,\"Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. \"Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory,\"Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Tom Doan, \"undated\".\"RATS program to estimate observable index model from Sargent-Sims(1977),\"Statistical Software ComponentsRTZ00126, Boston College Department of Economics. K. J. Arrow, 1964.\"The Role of Securities in the Optimal Allocation of Risk-bearing,\"Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 91-96. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977.\"Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations,\"Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-190, February. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Prescott, Edward C., 1974.\"Equilibrium search and unemployment,\"Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 188-209, February.Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS) Most related itemsThese are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one. 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Snowdon, Brian & Vane, Howard R., 1996.\"The development of modern macroeconomics: Reflections in the light of Johnson's analysis after twenty-five years,\"Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 381-401. More about this itemStatistics Access and download statistics Corrections All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1979:i:spr:n:v.3no.2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc. 153554b96e