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When are we going to see heatwaves again?
June 2017 13:46
The frequency of heatwaves in the first half of the 20th century can only be explained by anthropogenic climate change. A study by scientists from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich has now found that such extreme weather will become an even more frequent occurrence in the future.
Temperature records, solar radiation, wind, precipitation, heat and cold waves all play an important role in shaping the temperature landscape in the coming decades. In a study published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change, ETH Zurich scientists examined the likely effects of climate change over the coming century. This document includes a new global temperature record of the past three decades, and is based on the latest projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
“In the course of the 21st century, global temperatures are expected to rise by 1 to 4 degrees,” says Arjen T. Huisman from ETH Zurich. “The latter part of the century will also see a number of extreme heat waves, with the frequency of such events increasing from about once per decade to about once per year.”
In the past, this has been explained by fluctuations in solar radiation. The relative number of heatwaves increases as the number of sunspots decreases. After a prolonged solar minimum, however, sunspots will increase again. In the long term, though, there is an underlying limit to the occurrence of such extreme events. “The frequency of extreme heatwaves is largely controlled by the sun,” explains Huisman. “Even after the next solar minimum, the frequency of extreme heatwaves is likely to continue to increase.”
Winds, precipitation, solar radiation and precipitation have all played a role in shaping the temperature landscape in the past. In the near future, changes in these four parameters will again have a key impact on climate patterns. In addition to the direct influence on the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, climate models predict a more frequent occurrence of precipitation patterns such as rain, or snow. “In the course of the coming decades, we will see a change in the frequency and intensity of precipitation events. This might affect the hydrology of rivers and lakes, and possibly also the stability of ice sheets,” Huisman warns.
Heatwaves and changes in precipitation patterns are not the only climate change-related impacts in store for our world. Changes in the frequency and intensity of cold waves will also be an important factor 0b46394aab
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