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As the durations and distances involved in human exploration missions increase, the logistics associated with the repair and maintenance becomes more challenging. Whereas the operation of the International Space Station (ISS) depends upon regular resupply from the Earth, this paradigm may not be feasible for future missions. Longer mission durations result in higher probabilities of component failures as well as higher uncertainty regarding which components may fail, and longer distances from Earth increase the cost of resupply as well as the speed at which the crew can abort to Earth in the event of an emergency. As such, mission development efforts must take into account the logistics requirements associated with maintenance and spares. Accurate prediction of the spare parts demand for a given mission plan and how that demand changes as a result of changes to the system architecture enables full consideration of the lifecycle cost associated with different options. In this paper, we utilize a range of analysis techniques - Monte Carlo, semi-Markov, binomial, and heuristic - to examine the relationship between the mass of spares and probability of loss of function related to the Carbon Dioxide Removal System (CRS) for a notional, simplified mission profile. The Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool (EMAT), developed at NASA Langley Research Center, is utilized for the Monte Carlo analysis. We discuss the implications of these results and the features and drawbacks of each method. In particular, we identify the limitations of heuristic methods for logistics analysis, and the additional insights provided by more in-depth techniques. We discuss the potential impact of system complexity on each technique, as well as their respective abilities to examine dynamic events. This work is the first step in an effort that will quantitatively examine how well these techniques handle increasingly more complex systems by gradually expanding the system boundary.
There are a vast number of smartphone applications (apps) aimed at promoting medication adherence on the market; however, the theory and evidence base in terms of applying established health behavior change techniques underpinning these apps remains unclear. This study aimed to code these apps using the Behavior Change Technique Taxonomy (v1) for the presence or absence of established behavior change techniques. The sample of apps was identified through systematic searches in both the Google Play Store and Apple App Store in February 2015. All apps that fell into the search categories were downloaded for analysis. The downloaded apps were screened with exclusion criteria, and suitable apps were reviewed and coded for behavior change techniques in March 2015. Two researchers performed coding independently. In total, 166 medication adherence apps were identified and coded. The number of behavior change techniques contained in an app ranged from zero to seven (mean=2.77). A total of 12 of a possible 96 behavior change techniques were found to be present across apps. The most commonly included behavior change techniques were \"action planning\" and \"prompt/cues,\" which were included in 96% of apps, followed by \"self-monitoring\" (37%) and \"feedback on behavior\" (36%). The current extent to which established behavior change techniques are used in medication adherence apps is limited. The development of medication adherence apps may not have benefited from advances in the theory and practice of health behavior change. Copyright 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of manual and rotary instrumentation techniques for removing root fillings after different storage times. Twenty-four canals from palatal roots of human maxillary molars were instrumented and filled with gutta-percha and zinc-oxide eugenol-based sealer (Endofill) , and were stored in saline for 6 years. Non-aged control specimens were treated in the same manner and stored for 1 week. All canals were retreated using hand files or ProTaper Universal NiTi rotary system. Radiographs were taken to determine the amount of remaining material in the canals. The roots were vertically split, the halves were examined with a clinical microscope and the obtained images were digitized. The images were evaluated with AutoCAD software and the percentage of residual material was calculated. Data were analyzed with two-way ANOVA and Tukey's test at 5% significance level. There was no statistically significant differences (p>0.05) between the manual and rotary techniques for filling material removal regardless the ageing effect on endodontic sealers. When only the age of the filling material was analyzed microscopically, non-aged fillings that remained on the middle third of the canals presented a higher percentage of material remaining (p
The increasing complexity and runtime of environmental models lead to the current situation that the calibration of all model parameters or the estimation of all of their uncertainty is often computationally infeasible. Hence, techniques to determine the sensitivity of model parameters are used to identify most important parameters. All subsequent model calibrations or uncertainty estimation procedures focus then only on these subsets of parameters and are hence less computational demanding. While the examination of the convergence of calibration and uncertainty methods is state-of-the-art, the convergence of the sensitivity methods is usually not checked. If any, bootstrapping of the sensitivity results is used to determine the reliability of the estimated indexes. Bootstrapping, however, might as well become computationally expensive in case of large model outputs and a high number of bootstraps. We, therefore, present a Model Variable Augmentation (MVA) approach to check the convergence of sensitivity indexes without performing any additional model run. This technique is method- and model-independent. It can be applied either during the sensitivity analysis (SA) or afterwards. The latter case enables the checking of already processed sensitivity indexes. To demonstrate the method's independency of the convergence testing method, we applied it to two widely used, global SA methods: the screening method known as Morris method or Elementary Effects (Morris 1991) and the variance-based Sobol' method (Solbol' 1993). The new convergence testing method is first scrutinized using 12 analytical benchmark functions (Cuntz & Mai et al. 2015) where the true indexes of aforementioned three methods are known. This proof of principle shows that the method reliably determines the uncertainty of the SA results when different budgets are used for the SA. The results show that the new frugal method is able to test the convergence and therefore the reliability of SA results in an
The increasing complexity and runtime of environmental models lead to the current situation that the calibration of all model parameters or the estimation of all of their uncertainty is often computationally infeasible. Hence, techniques to determine the sensitivity of model parameters are used to identify most important parameters or model processes. All subsequent model calibrations or uncertainty estimation procedures focus then only on these subsets of parameters and are hence less computational demanding. While the examination of the convergence of calibration and uncertainty methods is state-of-the-art, the convergence of the sensitivity methods is usually not checked. If any, bootstrapping of the sensitivity results is used to determine the reliability of the estimated indexes. Bootstrapping, however, might as well become computationally expensive in case of large model outputs and a high number of bootstraps. We, therefore, present a Model Variable Augmentation (MVA) approach to check the convergence of sensitivity indexes without performing any additional model run. This technique is method- and model-independent. It can be applied either during the sensitivity analysis (SA) or afterwards. The latter case enables the checking of already processed sensitivity indexes. To demonstrate the method independency of the convergence testing method, we applied it to three widely used, global SA methods: the screening method known as Morris method or Elementary Effects (Morris 1991, Campolongo et al., 2000), the variance-based Sobol' method (Solbol' 1993, Saltelli et al. 2010) and a derivative-based method known as Parameter Importance index (Goehler et al. 2013). The new convergence testing method is first scrutinized using 12 analytical benchmark functions (Cuntz & Mai et al. 2015) where the true indexes of aforementioned three methods are known. This proof of principle shows that the method reliably determines the uncertainty of the SA results when different 153554b96e
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